When: Friday 23 February, 9:30am IST
Where: JSCA International Stadium, Ranchi
Watch: Sports 18 and Jio Cinemas
Best Odds: India 1.44, Draw 10, England 3.75
It took three matches for India to establish their dominance over their English rivals, but it now appears as though they’re moving back towards being their very best at home.
They moved one step closer towards reclaiming their status as a formidable team on home soil with their largest ever Test win by runs in Rajkot last week.
That was all despite one of the least experienced middle orders in their history, with no Virat Kohli and no KL Rahul, both of whom were quickly forgotten when Sarfaraz Khan bossed both innings on the way to a pair of twin fifties.
The Test cap average of India’s XI will reduce even further after Jasprit Bumrah didn’t take the charter flight to Ranchi, instead being rested for either Mukesh Kumar (who took 10/50 in a Ranji Trophy game after the second Test), the uncapped fast bowler Akash Deep, or even spinning all-rounder Axar Patel.
Preliminary observations of the pitch point to an uncharacteristically green Ranchi pitch, which is perhaps why cricket betting sites have not changed the odds for this match (compared with the previous one) despite India’s enormous third Test victory.
Once again, our India v England fourth Test predictions are looking away from the overall match winner markets, which have been difficult to get a hold of in such an interesting series.
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Despite their cavalier and fearless (some would even say reckless) approach to new ball batting, the pair of Zak Crawley and Ben Duckett have registered five of the six highest opening partnerships of the series so far.
They have cleared 50+ runs on four separate occasions in this series, once each at all three venues, which tells us that they’ve been wonderfully adept at adapting to all kinds of conditions.
Of course, the bowlers have to do their bit as well by restricting India’s first partnership, and England are collectively averaging 40 runs for the first wicket compared with 52 for India.
Mukesh Kumar was unable to dismiss either of Crawley or Duckettin the second Test, so if he is recalled to replace Bumrah as is expected by some, 2.3 could be an outstanding price for England to register the highest opening stand.
Prediction: England highest match opening partnership – 2.3 @ Luckster
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Given he registered first innings scores of 70, 47 and 41 throughout this series, we find it a little mind-boggling that Ben Stokes has been set an over/under mark of just 26.5 by Indian cricket betting sites for his first dig in Ranchi.
If there is anyone in England’s camp that is going to benefit from the absence of Jasprit Bumrah, it will be Stokes himself who scored just 18 runs from 9.5 overs bowled by Bumrah at an average of 9.00.
He has been ineffective in the second innings thanks to some poor shot selections against the spinners and a moment of lackadaisical running between the wickets, but as far as first innings are concerned he has found himself coming in after a mini-collapse and yet finding the resolve to dig in and make some impactful scores.
We’re anticipating he clears 27+ first innings runs for the seventh time in his last ten Tests.
Prediction: Ben Stokes over 26.5 first innings runs – 1.83 @ Luckster
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Ben Duckett is another man who could benefit from a Mukesh Kumar recall, having slapped 26 runs off the only 13 balls he faced in the second Test in Vizag.
He broke all kinds of records in the previous game, from the second-fastest Test hundred by an Englishman in India, to becoming the first touring batter ever to score 100 runs in a single session on Indian soil.
His approach to Test batting means that he does ride his luck to a big extent, but we’ve seen enough in this series to know that when he’s striking the ball cleanly, he can be very hard to stop.
We believe this is a similarly low mark based on Duckett’s recent numbers, given he posted match totals of 82, 49 and 157 in this series, scores more than 57 runs in 56% of his Tests, and still has plenty of upside about him in his second coming as a Test batter.
Prediction: Ben Duckett over 56.5 match runs – 1.83 @ Luckster
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