The quarter-finals of this year’s European competitions are only at the midway point, but England’s hopes of pipping Germany in the race for an extra Champions League spot look set to go down to the wire.
Heading into this week’s matches, English clubs sat ahead of their German counterparts – but only on countback with the two countries locked on the same coefficient points.
In the reformatted edition of next season’s competition, the two countries with the highest co-efficient will be given an extra group-stage place.
But Bayer Leverkusen’s first-leg victory over West Ham and Liverpool’s heavy home defeat at the hands of Atalanta has changed the complexion on the coefficients.
Italy sit top with a coefficient of 18.428 (but this will rise to 18.857 given the guaranteed points from AC Milan facing Roma in the Europa League) with England – on 16.750 – now behind Germany on 16.785. Spain are in fourth on 15.062, while France sit fifth on 14.750.
The Premier League still has a 57.8 per cent chance of claiming the bonus Champions League spot, according to Opta. However, those chances have been declining, plummeting 13 per cent from the previous matchday.
Every win English clubs can manage in this season’s continental tournaments will help – but with Arsenal facing Bayern Munich in the Champions League quarter-finals and West Ham in the Europa League against Bayer Leverkusen, the fact each match also affects Germany’s hopes makes every result all the more significant.
The change will see 36 teams competing in the competition in a ‘Swiss league’ style, allowing for an additional place to be allocated to the two countries whose clubs perform best across all UEFA competitions.
Two leagues will get an extra place in the competition based on performances in Europe this season, which are measured by the coefficient rankings.
With Germany and England neck-and-neck, each win, draw and qualification for the next rounds is huge – and magnified only further with two English sides taking on German sides across the next fortnight.
Arsenal drew 2-2 with Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund lost 2-1 at Atletico Madrid in the Champions League, while West Ham were beaten 2-0 at Bayer Leverkusen on Thursday.
Liverpool’s shock 3-0 home defeat by Atalanta means Italy can mathematically secure an extra Champions League spot if Fiorentina win and Atalanta do not lose in their respective second legs next week.
England has five teams left in Europe with Man City and Arsenal in the Champions League, Liverpool and West Ham through in the Europa League and Aston Villa progressing to the last eight of the Europa Conference League.
Germany have only three teams remaining – Bayer Leverkusen in the Europa League along with Champions League quarter-finalists Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund.
With Fiorentina progressing to the Europa Conference League quarter-finals, there are four Italian teams left standing with Atalanta (EL), AC Milan (EL), Roma (EL) and Fiorentina (ECL).
Regarding the final bullet point, those two associations will earn one place for the club best ranked in the domestic league behind the Champions League positions.
Aleksander Ceferin says the growing popularity of football in the USA could see a future Champions League final being hosted there. Credit: Men in Blazers Media Network @meninblazers
For example, based on the collective performance of their clubs last season, England and Italy would have both had an additional spot in the Champions League – meaning Liverpool and Atalanta – both fifth in their respective leagues – would have entered the competition.
Qualification for the two other UEFA competitions, the Europa League and Europa Conference League, will follow the same protocols as in previous years, albeit if the fifth spot qualifies for the Champions League, the Europa League spot will go to the team finishing sixth.
Similar format changes will also be applied to the Europa League (eight matches in the league stage) and Europa Conference League (six matches in the league stage) and both will also include 36 teams in the league phase.
Yes, it does – provided the domestic cups are won by those finishing inside the top seven as seen last season, with Manchester United winning the Carabao Cup and Manchester City winning the FA Cup.
Based on last season, eighth-placed Tottenham would have qualified for the Europa Conference League and Aston Villa would have been promoted to the Europa League.
Given the Champions League will almost double in size – from a total of 125 games to 225 – at least four additional matchdays will be required to fit in the extra games. This will inevitably cause issues for domestic leagues, with fewer dates to fit in all their games.
Taking the total number of teams from 32 to 36 in the Champions League, the biggest change will see a transformation from the traditional group stage to a single league phase including all participating teams.
Every club will now be guaranteed a minimum of eight league-stage games against eight different opponents (four home games, four away) rather than the previous six matches against three teams, played on a home-and-away basis.
The top eight sides in the league will qualify automatically for the knockout stage, while the teams finishing in ninth to 24th place will compete in a two-legged play-off to secure their path to the last 16 of the competition.
Sky Sports’ chief reporter Kaveh Solhekol looks at why Ceferin has decided to not stand again for UEFA president
Previously in 2005, when Liverpool won the Champions League but finished outside the top four, the Premier League was granted five potential Champions League berths, with the caveat of having to go through qualifiers.
During the 2015/16 season, Spain became the first association to have five teams in the Champions League group stage after Sevilla lifted the Europa League, despite finishing outside the top four in LaLiga the previous campaign, while Valencia came through the play-off round.
Remarkably, there is even a chance – albeit an extremely unlikely one – of there being as many as seven Premier League clubs in the Champions League next season based on the change in rules.
That would require both the Champions League and Europa League winners to be from the Premier League and both teams finishing outside the top five in the top flight.
You can now start receiving messages and alerts for the latest breaking sports news, analysis, in-depth features and videos from our dedicated WhatsApp channel!
