Gareth Southgate’s England men have not won a major competition since the World Cup in 1966.

However, England are ranked fourth in the world and were runners-up to Italy at Euro 2020.

Opta simulated Euro 2024 10,000 times and confirmed its pre-tournament percentages.

England won the tournament in 19.9% of simulations and reached the final in 31.1% of scenarios.

The most likely team to stop England are world number two, France (19.1%), who defeated England in Qatar and have reached the last two World Cup finals.

France are the only team to beat England in a competitive match since Italy in September, 2022.

France reached the final in 30.4% of simulations.

Hosts, Germany (12.4%), Spain (9.6%) and Portugal (9.2%) are other strong contenders to go all the way at the Euros.

Collectively, the five sides have more than a 33% chance of reaching the semi-finals.

Evidently, something or someone will have to give.

Opta analysis is not so bright for defending champions Italy (5.0%) and the third ranked team in the World, Belgium (4.7%).

However, Italy and Belgium reached the quarter-finals in almost 50% of simulations.

Fortunately for them, football isn’t played by computers and the sides don’t have to wait long to prove Opta wrong.

Euro 2024 kicks-off with Germany against Scotland in Munich on June 14th.

England start their campaign against Serbia on June 16th.