Yet despite personal reservations, Mr Ivainishvili was able to project a liberalising image to the West, both publicly and in private. A former aide said that when foreign dignitaries used to visit, Mr Ivinashvili would mock Putin, walking with limp to mimic the Russian leader’s bad back, in order to distance himself from the Kremlin.
Former associates claim Mr Ivanishvili’s paranoia over Western interference was a major reason for his return to politics in 2018. “He was thinking that Giorgi Kvirikashvili [the former prime minister] was getting too close to the West in particular, and that he would lose control over anyone,” said a former security official.
So why has the elusive Mr Ivanishvili returned to politics for a third time, and why risk poking his head above the parapet by supporting such an inflammatory new law?
“They don’t care if this negatively affects their European integration. It’s all about winning the election,” said Sergi Kapanadze, the former deputy speaker of Georgia’s parliament.
Ms Bokuchava said Georgia’s economy is “failing miserably”, adding that “hundreds of thousands of Georgians have fled the country through enforced emigration because there are no high paid jobs”.
Recent figures show the number of people emigrating from Georgia doubled to 250,000 last year – more than 15 per cent of the country’s entire population.
With polls suggesting overseas voters are likely to vote against Georgian Dream and civil society groups clamouring for reform, opposition leaders believe the Russian law is an attempt to crack down on dissent.
“He wants to suppress enthusiasm and dampen turnout by silencing opposition,” said Mr Tchiaberashvili.
Insiders believe the Kremlin is involved in the law’s introduction, with opinion on the extent of Moscow interference ranging from direct instructions issued by Putin to a shared set of Soviet-era values between the two leaders.
“It’s clear that [Ivanishvili’s] actions and the way he is ruling Georgia are serving the strategic interest of the Kremlin,” said Ms Bokuchava, adding that he may be concerned for his personal safety, given Moscow’s track record with nerve agents.
Mr Petriashvili quipped: “He does not want to become the victim of the incidental heart attack.”
After being crushed in a brief but costly war with its neighbour in 2008, Georgia ceded 20 per cent of its territory to Moscow in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. To this day, Georgian’s crossing the border are regularly stopped and arrested, with the European Court of Human Rights recently upholding multiple reports of torture and human rights abuses.
Analysts believe Russia’s invasion of Ukraine served as an inflection point for Georgia in its relations with the West.
“Until Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Ivanishvili could play with this grey zone,” said Mr Tchiaberashvili, explaining how Georgia would maintain cordial relations with both parties. “After the invasion, this grey zone evaporated. Now it’s black or white: either you are on the Russian or the Ukrainian side.”
Others hold that Mr Ivansishbili has returned to an official government position to provide him with a degree of political immunity from the threat of Western sanctions. “The only reason he is in politics is because he wants to keep power,” said Ms Bokuchava.
Reports suggest his son, Bera Ivanashvili, a rapper and bodybuilder known throughout Georgia simply as Bera, has recently been sent to Brazil as an insurance policy to give Mr Ivanishvili a way out in case the sanctions noose tightens.
“He views Georgia as Georgia, Inc. Where there are no national or citizen interests, just his own needs,” said Ms Bokuchava.
Whatever the true motivations are behind Mr Ivanishvili’s return, his actions, as ever, remain enigmatic. For now at least, Georgia’s Dream of joining the EU hangs in the balance.
