France vs England tips

A fascinating 2024 Six Nations championship with a wealth of narrow margins and thrilling finishes concludes not in Paris but in Lyon for the first time in the tournament’s history when France entertain England (8pm, ITV1).

Shifting away from the Stade de France appears to have been detrimental to Les Bleus this year, with a bruising Round 1 loss at home to Ireland (17-38) and a fortunate 13-13 draw with Italy meaning they have now failed to win their last three games on home soil after stringing together 18 straight home victories.

One final look at the outright Six Nations odds confirms what the table suggests: that Ireland are almost guaranteed to become the first team since England (2016-17) to retain the trophy. 

On that note, these teams are going to head out onto the pitch knowing whether either of them still have a remote chance of taking the crown should Ireland slip up earlier in the day against Scotland in Dublin.

But as we analyse the match prices on rugby betting sites for the last time in this championship, there are a couple of interesting patterns worth noting.

Not as simple as landing the first punch

The obvious aside – that being that both teams will set out to win every game they take part in – it does make it a little difficult to predict how France and England will approach this match in the instance that Ireland have already retained the Six Nations title.

That’s especially the case when the teams themselves have been so inconsistent throughout the season, whether that be England’s unprecedented half-time deficit at home to Wales or France conceding the opening try to the Welsh, only to bulldoze them in the final 20 minutes.

This has been a truly bizarre Championship on that front, with just half of the first 12 matches won by the team that scored first, whereas the average across the six seasons from 2018-23 was 80 per cent.

The market we are interested in gives 8/11 on betting apps for the team that scores first – try, penalty or drop goal – to not win the match. 

That has been the case in all four of England’s matches so far – they were down 10-0 before beating Italy, conceded a penalty try to Wales and a penalty kick to Ireland, and opened the scoring early in a loss to Scotland.

Similarly, Les Bleus went down 7-0 on the way to winning in Edinburgh, took a 10-0 lead against Italy before Jonathan Danty was sent off, and conceded a first minute penalty in the win over Wales.

France vs England Tip 1: Team scoring first does not win – 8/11 Betfred

An incomplete performance – but from who?

So with almost all 2024 Six Nations Championship matches involving either team seeing such frequent lead changes, there’s a similar play that bettors could have taken across the season with similar success.

Borthwick’s men trailed at the half-time break in all three of their wins so far, which is remarkable given just two of their games over the past four editions of the Six Nations were not won by the half-time leader of the day.

These two sides could be scrapping it out for the honour of second place to Ireland, and with both being guilty of inconsistency throughout the tournament, we could get a scenario where neither wins both halves of the match.

Just take note that this particular play is for neither team to outscore their opponent in both halves – it is not the same as one team leading at the end of both halves (e.g. it would have produced a collect in Scotland’s Round 1 victory over Wales when they were in front at both half-time and full-time despite being outscored in the second half).

France vs England Tip 2: Neither team to win both halves – 8/13 BetUK

Fur-banking on a hat-trick of tries

England head coach Steve Borthwick attracted a bit of feedback when deciding to stick with Northampton number 15 George Furbank at starting full-back ahead of Freddie Steward for the win over Ireland following a costly mistake against Scotland that led directly to a Duhan van der Merwe try.

But his faith was repaid last week when a burst of early second-half energy from Furbank put the finishing touches on an excellent left-wing attack that delivered the first of the two tries which sparked England on their way to a famous victory.

Furbank has been known to spearhead fast-paced counter-attacks at Northampton by fully committing himself to quick, booming and well-timed sprints to loop onto the end of some quick releases.

Having now crossed the line in five of his last eight games for club or country, which includes tries in England’s last two Six Nations games, we’re keen to continue riding what is hopefully the crest of the wave by backing him on gambling sites to score again. 

France vs England Tip 3: George Furbank to score a try any time – 4/1 with bet365

Get a free bet for France vs England

The 2024 Six Nations reaches its conclusion on Saturday night in Lyon and for anyone wanting to follow our France vs England predictions, check betting sites to see if you are eligible for a free bet first.

Bet365 have a great selection of rugby markets and their new customer offer rewards bettors who use the bet365 bonus code INDY2023 with up to £30 in free bets.

To qualify for the full £30 in free bets, users will need to deposit £10 and then wager a minimum of £10 on a selection with odds of 1/5 or greater.

For fans of online casinos, bet365’s welcome offer gives users 50 free spins at their slot sites when they make an initial deposit of £10.

Don’t forget, always check the terms and conditions before opening an account with any new betting sites. If you do have a bet on the Six Nations this weekend, remember to gamble responsibly.